This analysis from the Kaiser Family Foundation projects the eligibility, enrollment, and state spending that would result from the implementation of the expansion of the Medicaid program to nearly all individuals under age 65 with incomes below 133 percent of the federal poverty level under the Patient Protection and Affordable Care Act.
The analysis estimates that up to 15.9 million individuals would be covered by the expanded Medicaid program by the year 2019. Federal spending would increase by $443.5 billion and state spending would increase by $21.1 billion between 2014‐2019. Thus, about 95 percent of all new spending would be by the federal government. Spending in 2014 is expected to be relatively small, particularly for states because enrollment is being phased‐in and the federal matching rate for new eligibles is 100 percent.