The Congressional Budget Office (CBO) has swiftly issued its estimate of the impact of the just released Senate Health Care Freedom Act. The CBO maintains its prior estimate that by 2026 (after 10 years), 16 million Americans would lose their health insurance under the bill. That impact would be immediate, with 15 million Americans losing their health insurance next year. The CBO also maintains its prior estimate that average health insurance premiums in the individual marketplaces would increase 20%.
However, the CBO now estimates that the federal budget deficit reduction from the bill over ten years would be over $135 billion, which is over the $133 billion target (from the House’s American Health Care Act).
So it now appears that the bill will meet the requirements for a budget reconciliation bill that will only requires 50 votes for passage (with any 50-50 tie to be broken by Vice President Mike Pence).