This analysis from the Congressional Budget Office (CBO) describes the impact of a partial repeal of the Affordable Care Act (ACA) on health insurance coverage and health insurance premiums.
If Congress repeals the ACA’s employer and individual mandate penalties and de-funds premium and cost-sharing tax credit subsidies now provided by through health insurance marketplaces and the expansion of Medicaid, the CBO estimates that 18 million Americans would lose their health insurance in the first year of implementation. This would include 10 million losing their health insurance from the health insurance marketplace, 5 million losing Medicaid coverage, and 3 million losing employer-based coverage. The CBO estimates that the number of Americans losing their health insurance would rise to 32 million by 2026. The CBO estimates that by 2026, the total number of uninsured Americans would be 59 million (compared to 28 million today); 21 percent of Americans under age 65 would be uninsured.
The CBO also estimates that such a partial repeal and de-funding would result in the destabilization of health insurance markets, with an estimated increase in premiums of 20 to 25 percent to purchase health insurance in the remaining individual health insurance markets in the first year of implementation, rising to nearly 100 percent by 2026.