The Congressional Budget Office (CBO) has issued this updated analysis of the impact of the repeal of the Affordable Care Act’s individual mandate, which was included in H.R. 1, the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act passed by the U.S. House of Representatives on November 16, 2017. The CBO estimates that the repeal of the individual mandate would result in an additional 13 million Americans becoming uninsured over the next ten years, by the year 2027. Moreover, without a requirement to purchase health insurance, less Americans would do so, and health insurance plans would increase premiums to account for a less healthy overall risk pool (with less healthy, lower cost individuals in the market). Accordingly, the CBO also estimates that health insurance premiums in the individual health insurance market would increase about 10% each year. Those increases in premiums also will disincentivize Americans to maintain or purchase health insurance, which also will increase the number of uninsured.
The Senate is expected to vote on the tax reform bill sometime this week.